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February 15, 2006


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Chinese Dragon Still Roaring
February 3, 2006

Media and Cement...
January 20, 2006

Go Global!
January 7 , 2006

Small-Cap Cash Cow
December 9, 2005

A Whiz Around the World
December 3, 2005

Three Stocks, Three Winners
November 19, 2005

Fat Saudi Oilmen
November 4, 2005

What Does Bernake Mean for the Market?
October 30, 2005

A Real Nice Chunk of Change
October 14, 2005

House Hedge Gains
October 8, 2005

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter
October 1, 2005

Another Rate Hike in the Bag
September 24, 2005

Gate Closing for Business at Northwest
September 17, 2005

Fight Back Against Galloping Gas Prices...
September 10, 2005

Sell YELL
September 9, 2005

Nuclear Clearup...
August 27, 2005

Take 77% in Two Days!
August 19, 2005

Forget Oil's Rise
August 12, 2005

Dawson Darts Higher
July 29, 2005

Comfortable Gains
July 22, 2005
FCFS on Hold
July 01, 2005
Brazilian Rebound

June 16, 2005

DWSN Upgrade

June 10, 2005

ANF up 123%

June 2 , 2005

Extremely Oversold

May 27, 2005

DVS on Hold
May 20, 2005
PSUN in the Green
May 13, 2005

RNWK on Fire
May 6, 2005

Take 30% Gains on SRZ
May 2 , 2005

Introgen Therapeutics Update
Apr. 22, 2005

Sell Into the Rally
Apr. 21, 2005

FARO Gains Within Hours
Apr. 15, 2005

New 52-Week High For Sunrise
Apr. 8, 2005

Sell KKD - Take 23%
Apr. 1, 2005

KKD on the Move
Mar. 18, 2005
Billion Dollar Sales
Mar. 4, 2005
Hot Hands Beale
Feb.25, 2005

Long Overdue For a Bounce
Feb.18, 2005

2nd Half of SWN Up 240%
Feb.16, 2005

Looking Norte
Feb.11, 2005

An Airline Turns a Profit!
Jan. 28, 2005

Take 253% Gains on ASTM
Jan. 26, 2005

SBL Upgraded--Hold
Jan. 21, 2005

181% Second Half Gains!
Jan. 14, 2005

Sell Your IBM Calls
Dec. 30, 2004

CD on Hold
Dec. 17, 2004

SINA Up 68%
Dec. 10, 2004

Exit QHILX for 467% Gains
Dec. 6, 2004
Upping Our Entry

Nov. 29, 2004
Taking Taipan Gains
Nov. 12, 2004
Hot Games, Hotter Profits

November 5, 2004

Lock In 21% Gains
November 2, 2004

China Stocks Rock the House
October 29, 2004

Gloppy but Lucrative
October 22, 2004

CD up 28%
October 15, 2004

MAGS in the Green
October 08, 2004
Hold Despite the Crumble

October 01, 2004
Conference Buzz

September 24, 2004

Sell ROW
September 15, 2004

Not Fleeing FLE
September 10, 2004

Holding IPIX and TASR
August 27, 2004

Drop the Laggards
August 20, 2004

Still Bullish on HEPH
August 13, 2004
Oil Turns Defensive, Airline Stocks Up

August 11, 2004
Market Crumbles As Only 32,000 Jobs Are Added
August 6, 2004

Project Bioshield Signed Into Law
July 23, 2004
Reiterating a Buy on TASR

July 21, 2004

Holding IPIX
July 16, 2004

Cendant Ups Guidance
July 9, 2004

More Good News for TASR
July 2, 2004

TASR Up 22%
June 25, 2004

Time to Sell a Few
June 18, 2004
Sell AUO

June 11, 2004

Take Profits
June 4, 2004

MHR Falls Into Buy Range
June 3, 2004

SVVS Still a Hold
May 21, 2004

Sunrise Senior's Silver Lining
May 07, 2004
Sitting Tight with TASR

April 30, 2004

MGM on a Tear
April 23, 2004

TASR at New High
April 16, 2004
JBLU Still Flying

April 14, 2004

A Stock With a US$8 Dividend
April 7, 2004
TKF up 38%

April 2, 2004

The Profit Hog Insider
March 19, 2004

PD at US$79 Stop Loss
March 12, 2004

FLE Still a Hold
March 5, 2004

PD on Hold With US$100 Target
February 27, 2004

Sell PLUG--
Take 17%

February 25, 2004

20% Gains in
Round 5

February 24, 2004

MO Still a Hold
February 20, 2004

Fourth Quarter Revenues Roll at Cendant
February 06, 2004
KCS up 318%

January 16, 2004
The India Fund Hits US$26.89 – up 52%

January 09, 2004
PD Still Running Wild

December 19, 2003
Hold Them All

December 12, 2003
Still Holding JBLU

December 05, 2003
Sell the Losers and Let the Winners Run

November 18, 2003
Average 72.6% Gain Since January 2003

November 14, 2003
ICGE Remains a Hold

November 07, 2003
Profiting in the Face of Downgrades

October 31, 2003
Sit Tight with JBLU

October 24, 2003
Fixation on Green

October 17, 2003
NETE up 274%! LEXR up 215%!

October 08, 2003
LEXR up 202%

October 03, 2003
The EK Plunge

September 26, 2003
Netegrity up 260%

September 12, 2003
Still Holding LEXR with 162% Gains

September 05, 2003
Free Second-Half Ride on NETE

August 29, 2003
136% Gains on LEXR - Hold winner

August 22, 2003
Lexar hits US$14.29 - that’s a 114% winner

August 20, 2003
LEXR up 93%

August 15, 2003
No LEXR Worries

August 06, 2003
Altria Gains as Market Slumps

August 01, 2003
LEXR up 93% -

July 18, 2003
LEXR up 93% - earnings tonight, hold

July 17, 2003
Movin’ on up with LEXR

July 11, 2003
LEXR up 50%

June 27, 2003
An Upgrade, Another Contract, and an Up Trend to Boot

June 20, 2003
The Dogs of Profits

June 13, 2003
10.8% five-month average gain – Good Dogs
June 06, 2003
Tax Cut Approved

May 23, 2003
Say Goodbye to Dividend Taxes…

May 16, 2003
Bulls on Parade

May 09, 2003
Check out ABMD

May 02, 2003
Hold ABMD

April 25, 2003
Mixed Market Madness

April 11, 2003
Hold the Dogs

April 04, 2003
ABMD on Hold

March 28, 2003
The Dogs of War

March 21, 2003
BFLY Looking Good Again

March 14, 2003
Hold Back the Dogs

March 07, 2003
Hold the Dogs

February 21, 2003
Back from the Dead

February 14, 2003
A Dividend for HON

February 07, 2003
Maybe that US$1.5 billion is under the couch?

January 31, 2003
Bad Dog

January 24, 2003
Dogs Earnings Alert
January 17, 2003
Day of the Dogs
January 10, 2003
Dogs of the Dow Round 2

January 03, 2003
What a Year!

December 27, 2002
AKAM up 223%

November 22, 2002
DG Still a Bargain
November 15, 2002
Time to Take More Profits
November 08, 2002
82% in Just 10 Days
November 01, 2002
One Week ñ 25.6% Average Gains

October 25, 2002
TLK up 13%

October 18, 2002
DG on Hold
October 11, 2002
Insiders Flocking
October 04, 2002
MWY up 10%…
September 20, 2002
Insiders are Flocking…
September 20, 2002
Hold GNK
September 13, 2002
DG SSS up 6.3%
September 6, 2002
In this DG Earnings
August 30, 2002
Hold HPON

August 23, 2002
Dollar Store Run
August 16, 2002
DG SSS up 6.6%
August 9, 2002
Sell EWJ
August 2, 2002
DG - the place to be
July 26, 2002
Good News Remains
July 19, 2002
ITRU Up 61%
July 12, 2002
More Gains
July 5, 2002
ITRU Up 53% in 11 Days
June 28, 2002
ITRU Up 36% in Nine Days
June 26, 2002
IBN Remains a Hold
June 14, 2002
Gold in the Markets
June 7, 2002

WINKóSell it for 52% Profits
May 31, 2002

South African Breweries Update
May 24, 2002

Holds and Sells
May 17, 2002

IC now IBN
May 10, 2002

59% Gains, 10 Days
May 3, 2002

WINK up 8%
April 26, 2002





 

 

February 10, 2006

Attention "House Hedgers": Important HGX News

 

IN THIS WEEK’S ISSUE:

##Toll Brothers Reduces Sales Forecast

##HGX Housing Index Splits 2 for 1: Important News for “House Hedge” Investors

##What the January Job Report Means for the Fed and Inflation

##Watch Out for Bears – Bad News Bears! Another Strong Earnings Season Underway

##Americans Fancy Something Foreign, While You Get Chance to Scoop Major Profits from the Chinese Downturn (yep, a downturn!)

Dear Taipan Subscriber,

Are you a Taipan “House Hedge” player?

If so, you’ll want to get your eyes and ears around this piece of news from the series creator Bryan Bottarelli (a regular Taipan editor and options play tactician at our WaveStrength Group).

Bryan writes: “Did you see that homebuilding giant Toll Brothers again reduced its forecast for home sales for the fiscal year ending in October? Management also announced that new orders for the quarter fell to 1,572 from 2,209 – an ugly decline of nearly 29%, with the contract values declining 21% to US$1.14 billion.

“Surprised? You shouldn’t be. Not if you’ve followed our prognosis for the US housing market, because we’ve been playing the downside of the US housing market for the last six months.

“And Toll’s bad news about declining business (insiders, by the way, started selling large chunks of shares in the second half of 2005) means it’s good news if you followed Taipan’s advice into a handsomely profitable hedge position.

“However, I need to give you some key information here…

“On February 1, the Philadelphia Housing Index (HGX) split 2 for 1. This often creates a lot of confusion, especially for options holders, so allow me to explain the situation…

“The original recommendation was to purchase the HGX March 540 Puts (HGX OH) on October 3 for US$34.40 as a downside defense against negative pressure on the US housing market. On October 11, we told you to sell half of this position for US$63.60 and lock in an 85% gain. As for the remaining half, the advice was to hold out for more gains.

“However, with the HGX stock split, your March 540 Puts, those have now changed to the March 270 Puts. The symbol is HGX ON. It also means instead of holding one HGX March 540 put contract, you now hold two March 270 put contracts. If you originally bought four contracts, you how own eight, etc.

“Right now, these new March 270 puts trade between US$15.50 and US$16.80. On the surface, it would appear that you’re showing a big loss. But don’t panic – that’s not the case.

“Remember, you now have twice the number you originally bought. That makes the total value of your puts US$34.40, which is your exact entry price from October.

“Look to sell your remaining half at or above US$20.00, good for the month of February. If these puts do not trade above US$20.00 by the end of the month, we’ll re-evaluate at that time.”

My thanks to Bryan for that important update. Hope that clears up any questions you may have.

* * * * * * * * * *

Google-Sized Gains at the Click of a Mouse!

If you missed the boat on the Google’s incredible US$350 run, don’t worry – there’s a “tag-along” stock within the search engine’s multibillion niche with just the same potential.

Potential that could net savvy investors 395% gains in less than six months!

This information is hot off the press, so you must act now.

Check out the full report here:

http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/TRZ/ETRZG248/

* * * * * * * * * *

JOBS, INFLATION AND BAD NEWS BEARS

 

With the dust having now settled on the January job report, let’s talk a little bit about the inflation implications.

On the surface, the fact that the US economy generated 193,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate declining 0.2% to a five-year low of 4.7%, looks like good news. But it isn’t. And I’ll tell you why.

With the jobless rate falling to a level where inflation might pick up, the numbers didn't produce much by way of cheer. Instead they sparked concerns over more interest rate hikes in the near future. When the Federal Reserve met for the last time under Alan Greenspan, it left the possibility open that it could raise rates further. January’s job numbers could make that more likely when the Fed reconvenes under Ben Bernanke.

But the notion that there’s a point where the unemployment rate becomes inflationary is misleading. Given what we know about the Fed’s philosophy these days, it’s not going to raise interest rates simply because the unemployment rate is below 5%. Anyone who thinks the stuffy old bankers will make knee-jerk decisions based on one month of job data needs his head examined.

In any event, it’s the surprising drop in US productivity that is more frown-inducing than the job numbers. Should it continue to fall, that could signal a larger problem.


Despite this, though, don’t be fooled by the mainstream financial media’s gloomy approach. Many headlines today would seem to suggest that the American economy is faring badly – particularly in light of that job report and the poor fourth-quarter GDP number (1.1%).

But take a look at corporate earnings. In the midst of another reporting season, the Financial Times expects fourth-quarter earnings per share on the S&P 500 to grow 13.4% on average. If this prediction is anywhere near accurate, it will mark ten consecutive quarters that the market has recorded double-digit earnings growth. Such a trend hasn’t occurred since the middle of the 1990’s, and only once before that, in the mid 1970’s.

FANCY SOMETHING FOREIGN

 

Americans seem to be ignoring their low savings rate and piling money into foreign assets with as much gusto as ever.

Whereas US stock funds enjoyed US$9.2 billion worth of inflows in November, the figure slumped to US$2.2 billion in December. Foreign funds reaped the benefit, hauling in US$11.8 billion in November and US$12.3 billion in December.

For all of 2005, foreign stock funds scooped up US$104.6 billion in capital - a 57% surge from 2004. By contrast, US stock funds endured a 72% slump in inflows last year.

And speaking of foreign investment assets, that’s Brit Ryle’s bag, baby! The man who beat Warren Buffett to investing in China by a full year is now set to do it again!

Brit has his finger well and truly on China’s pulse and informs me that while most folks haven’t realized it yet, preferring instead to focus on China’s headline GDP growth numbers, the economic tide is turning.

For you, it’s great to have a guy like Brit on your side, because while everyone else sits around waiting for it to happen, Brit has identified the companies you need to make 748% as the secret Chinese economic meltdown begins!

To access his FREE report, please click this link:

http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/TPT/ETPTG208/

Well, that’s all for this week. Enjoy the weekend and take care if you’re in the path of the big snowstorm headed for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Martin Denholm

Executive Editor, Taipan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MMM

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