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Death of a Desk Top. Or, The battle of the remote
If you've followed Taipan's advice in the past, and I know you did, you are already in two of these companies. In fact you're up more than 116 percent in one and 57 percent in the other.
Most people believe that the government's attack on the Windows monopoly will signal the demise of Microsoft, or at the very least, will slow it down. Taipan believes that the government has nothing to do with it.
By the time Bill Gates and Janet Reno finish their pugilistic polka, the outcome will be irrelevant. Historically, when the Feds go after a company, market forces have already started to dissolve that company anyway. It was true with IBM in the 80s and it's true with MSFT today.
Shutters '99
"Did you hear that Bill Gates had a kid? He called him Child 99."
The personal computer may not become toast, but it might become a toaster. The current PC form is undergoing pupation. And the old worm of the industry is faced with fundamental problems.
The PC is now a commodity. When the only means of differentiating your product from your competition is flashy colors and a sleek new shape, you know you are at the end of the technological wave. Heck, we even saw this trend with avocado refrigerators in the seventies. Now you base your refrigerator purchase on longevity and price--not frost-free functions and butter trays.
Butter my muffin
Granted, like computers today, you can have all the options you want. However, we are now at the point when a computer using broad bandwidth can run real-time video and audio. In terms of graphic-intensive thick-data crunching what else is there? Games?
Why spend three thousand smackers on a computer when you can get better games with the next round of Sony Playstation for under US$300? No reason. The point is that PCs are now like refrigerators--judged on price and longevity.
Prices have fallen on average from US$1,700 in 1997 to US$750 today. And regardless of what you hear, there is very little pricing power in brands. Dell leads the way on price--not because it's a Dell.
Charlie don't surf
The price of PC's continue to fall; however, the volume is on a constant up trend--30 percent a month in the current consumer spending frenzy.
The day is coming when every home that wants one will have a computer, if not three. And talk about cheap, now basic computers will fulfill everyone's needs, including surfing, chatting, word processing and online money management, at a cost lower than a big screen television.
The Internet is the last horizon for the PC. It is propelling the confluence of the television, telephone and palm top. Other devices can perform the functions of most PCs, most notably Web TV and palm devices.
Web TV hasn't exactly been taking off like the proverbial prom dress--only 800,000 subscribers so far. However, with the advance of digital television and cable modems, you can't help but believe it is the future.
The real pocket monster
Digital phones will be the next high-tech fad. These devices will perform e-mail, chat, beeper, calendars, download porn or enable you to while away the hours playing video poker at an offshore casino. Essentially, they will do everything but make you a roast beef sandwich with deli mustard--unless, of course, you order take-out.
The greater broadband capability will reduce the need for the hard drive. Bigger broadband means that software can be held on a distant server--downloaded in seconds and used as needed. This would enable those palm pilots of the future to run everything you need--if only they had a keyboard.
Please read on...
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