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August 2000


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e-Business is E-normous

by J.K. Riggin

In high school, it was the plain Janes who verbally assassinated the class babe behind her back. It's the same with workaday liberal journalists, who wax green over supposed environmental horrors caused by the sports utility vehicles they'll never be able to afford. Now it's the dot-com hangover hype, as the mainstream press gleefully reports on the pitfalls of life in the start-up lane.

Well as far as the Internet is concerned, don't believe the post-hype.

Despite a deserved shakeout in high-visibility consumer e-commerce plays that either had flawed business models or simply overspent on marketing, e-business is alive and well, thank you very much.

Last September, I told you about a handful of tech companies providing software and services to the world of dot-coms. Nearly a year later, the story has sweetened. Beyond the swath of dot-coms going belly-up and the overall pull-back among Internet blue chips, the market for e-business software, services and network infrastructure continues to boom.

And it's not just the big boys like Oracle (ORCL:NASDAQ) and Cisco Systems (CSCO:NASDAQ) keeping it all to themselves. There's plenty to go around — so much so that a new wave of companies is establishing real beachheads in the ongoing process of rewiring how companies do business over the Internet.

Why? It's a game of catch-up, and you have to look far and wide to find a company not joining the race. Because the semi-revolution amidst Web-enabled B2B and B2C businesses has sent the mother of all wake-up calls to corporate America. And every vice president worth his business casuals is patching an Internet strategy into his PowerPoint presentation to help explain how his division is going to sell more widgets.

Let's first check in on some of the companies I told you about last September. After a mildly successful IPO, database optimizer Quest Software (QSFT:NASDAQ) has performed nicely, more than doubling from US$21 a share to over US$55. If you got in early, you might have appreciated the ride up to nearly US$100. Quest survived the late spring correction well, and continues to move up.

Things have been bumpier for the king of content management software, Vignette (VIGN:NASDAQ). The company's stock price ballooned more than tenfold, then fell off from its high by more than half. But the stock has mounted a fierce comeback through the beginning of the summer, and is still four times higher than where it was last September.

CRM (customer relationship management) software maker Broadvision (BVSN:NASDAQ) followed a similar path, peaking in the spring at almost US$100. But like Vignette, Broadvision is a solid company and mini-category-killer; its stock also is now trading at more than four times the price from last September.

And finally, there's AppNet (APNT:NASDAQ), up more than double from September's price. AppNet recently announced that it would be acquired by online marketplace builder CommerceOne (CMRC:NASDAQ); market reception has been so-so. CommerceOne doesn't project profits until late next year (which will move up with the AppNet purchase). Profitable AppNet, however, appears to have sought preemptive shelter, as it announced disappointing earnings after the merge announcement.

The CommerceOne situation is murky. Buying AppNet does help their balance sheet, but the real playing field for business-to-business marketplaces on the Web has yet to emerge. Don't forget that several big boys — SAP not least among them — are zeroing in on this space, and CommerceOne is getting large enough that it may be difficult to switch gears if it has to at some point down the road.

With AppNet going away, take a look at Viant (VIAN:NASDAQ), a Boston-based e-business consultant. Viant's 1999 IPO timing was similar to that of AppNet, and both companies turn up on the same lists of high-end Web developers and consultants. AppNet's fall from grace could bode well for Viant, which could also be perceived as an acquisition target. Though profitable, Viant is trading at more than 50% off its 52-week high. Watch for Viant to return to good graces through the second half of 2000. Take a look at Viant, but rely on Vignette and Broadvision to continue to deliver.

At the same time, the e-business sector continues to generate emerging companies that are nailing down new service niches. Following are three companies to add to your hot list — two short- and long-term performers and a pre-IPO company that should make a splash by the end of the year.

First up is BEA Systems (BEAS:NASDAQ), a provider of e-business transaction services that's all of five years old. BEAS helps companies of all sizes build e-commerce systems that essentially glue together and extend the capabilities of existing computer systems. The company has worked within a wide variety of industries, including investment banking, securities trading, telecommunications, airlines, retail, manufacturing, package delivery, insurance and government. BEAS's tools run the gamut, from critical e-business processes, billing and provisioning; to customer service, electronic funds transfers, ATM networks and Web banking; to supply chain management, scheduling and logistics, and hotel/airline/car reservations.

Like everybody else's, the company's stock skyrocketed in March, and fell back sharply in April. But unlike the rest, BEAS has been riding a bullet since May.

New deals with Loudcloud (Netscape co-founder Marc Andreeson's ASP play), Nortel Networks and Nokia (yes, a wireless play to provide end-to-end mobile e-commerce) have stoked the fire, big time. Happy blue chip customers like First Union, Qwest, FedEx, Amazon.com and E*Trade don't hurt, either. The word's out, and although BEAS is not cheap, given the company's solid track record of introducing new products and rapidly delivering its services successfully, it's no wonder this stock has the Big Mo.

Next up is Brocade Communications (BRCD:NASDAQ), a storage area network facilitator that in five years has surpassed Amazon.com in market cap. The company provides a service called Fibre Channel switching for SANs (storage area networks), which enables companies to realize the benefits of a networked approach to the connection of computer storage systems and servers. As file storage requirements increase, this is rapidly becoming a critical need for e-businesses. Remember, every customer profile, credit card number, purchase order, etc., needs to be stored on a server somewhere. As e-business grows, not to mention Web content overall, the demand for additional storage grows with it. And don't underestimate the impact of broadband connectivity. Faster connections mean bigger files (memory hogs like streaming video and audio, for example), all of which will require increased storage capacity.

Brocade sells its products through leading storage systems and server OEMs, as well as through systems integrators. To date, the company has done an outstanding job of lining up strategic relationships with the market leaders in enterprise servers and data storage, including Dell, Compaq and EMC. In all, Brocade's network of OEM partners blankets 90% of the global storage market, easily outdistancing all other SAN vendors.

Brocade is profitable, taking US$104.8 million in revenue (up from US$18.5 million a year earlier) and net income of US$20.6 million for the six months ended 4/29/00. Put more simply, the afterburners are kicking in with this company, and it's reflected in the stock price. Brocade's price doubled from February to March before taking the correction pill. But as with BEAS, the post-hype consensus is smiling on Brocade, since only the most successful businesses, be they dot-com or bricks-and-mortar, need the company's services in the first place.

Brocade is well positioned. According to International Data Corporation, the company owns approximately 80% of the storage market. Moving forward, IDC is bullish on the space, projecting 112% compounded annual growth from US$34 million in 1998 to US$1.7 billion in 2002.

A June deal with none other than Cisco Systems helped to fire the stock's recent rally. But the deal has long-term strategic implications. Working with Cisco, Brocade can now enable customers to interconnect their SANs over Internet protocol-based metropolitan and wide area networks. This means broader reach for SAN applications, such as long distance disaster recovery, backup, and content distribution.

Storage may not be sexy. It's a step in the e-business process that's easy to overlook when you're patching together disparate systems or putting out deployment-related fires or managing volatile fulfillment issues. But effective storage solutions are as indispensable as water and electricity, and will eventually turn up on the checklist (not the wish list) of any e-business IT manager. Brocade jumped into this market early and quickly dominated it through a network of influential OEMs. This one's a keeper.

Finally, there's Intira, which comes with its own new category. In this case, it's "netsourcing." All e-businesses require a Web site, and all Web sites require a host (computer, high-speed Internet connection, power, real estate). When it comes to the hotly contested territory of hosting e-business Web sites, there are two ends of the spectrum. On the one hand, you can go with a company like Exodus (EXDS:NASDAQ), which provides everything but the computer. At the other end, you can outsource everything, including the software applications, with an ASP (application service provider), such as USinternetworking (USIX:NASDAQ) or Breakaway Solutions (BWAY:NASDAQ). As a "netsourcer," Intira is somewhere in the middle of this spectrum, providing more than just a high-speed Internet connection, but not getting tangled up leasing applications to customers.

For Intira, this means hosting and managing corporate networks. The company claims to be one of the first movers in a market The Yankee Group says will reach US$20 billion by 2003. Intira's pitch is network management: hassle-free, turnkey and guaranteed. The company even goes so far as to offer its customers one day free for every 15 minutes of downtime, by any standards an aggressive service level commitment for the industry.

Quality venture money has taken notice of Intira to the tune of nearly US$300 million. VC leaders Chase Capital and New Enterprise Associates have placed early stakes in the Pleasanton, California startup. Watch for an IPO filing later this year.

E-business is here to stay, and growth and corporate spending will continue to bubble over the next two years. Even the granddaddy of e-business, IBM (IBM:NYSE), realized this when they backed out of the hardware end to focus on services a few years ago. The difference with Internet-enabled e-business, however, is that new categories of companies are continually emerging, including content management, customer relationship management, application service providers, transaction services, storage area networks and netsourcing. And dominant players within each of these categories are fast arriving on the scene.




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