In the November 2004, December
2004, and January 2005 issues of
Taipan, plus the 2005 Forecast Issue, I
performed an exhaustive analysis of
the seasonal theories of Harry Dent
and came to a singular conclusion:
the most effective method of long-
term cyclic investment was to
observe four specific signals demon-
strated in the S&P 500 monthly chart.       Note that when the MACD-H lead-
ing and lagging lines cross each other,
whether these crossovers occur in positive or negative territory, and
whether Momentum is positive or
negative, the system yields an
emphatic buy signal.       Had you simply purchased
US$10,000 worth of indexed shares
when the S&P presented this buy sig-
nal in November 1994, and then
played the subsequent buy and sell
signals accordingly, you could have
turned that 10K into US$56,498.37.
Buying Long-term Anticipation
Securities options (LEAPS) instead of
simple shares could have increased this gain even more.       I bring this up for one simple rea-
son: While I wasn’t in a position to
enable Taipan readers to benefit from
this method back in 1994, I am now!       And the market looks like it’s about
to present one of those rare unam-
biguous signals.       For the first time since December
1999, the S&P 500’s MACD-H leading
average line has met its lagging line
while both were on the positive side
of zero. Simultaneously, the
Momentum oscillator, which yielded       Although Oxiteno sells a large por-
tion of its commodities and specialty
chemicals in the Brazilian market, the
company also exports a substantial
portion of its production to over 35
countries in Asia, Europe and North
America. Net sales increased 34% in
2004 from 2003. And with increasing
commodity prices, higher annual
sales could arrive in 2005. Chemical reaction What about transporting these chemicals and gases? Again, Ultrapar
has it covered. Its third subsidiary,
Ultracargo, is a leader in integrated
transportation services for the
Brazilian chemical, petrochemical and
LPG sectors.       Ultracargo has two subsidiaries,
Transultra and Tequimar.       Transultra operates in the trans-
portation segment with a fleet of
tanker trucks. It also provides trans-
portation services to LPG distributors
and to the chemicals industry.       Tequimar offers storage services
and accounts for 71% of the storage
capacity at the Aratu Terminal (state
of Bahia)—the lar  gest petrochemical
complex in South America. Untracargo’s net sales and services increased 11% in 2004 compared to
2003. Muito dinheiro       With such solid performance, it’s
not surprising to see Ultrapar’s rev-
enues increase. Annual sales grew
30.5% in 2004. Net income grew by
83.4%. And the icing on the cake is a
3.92% dividend yield.       The anticipated summer travel
season in Brazil could easily push
UGP to hit its 52-week high of $19.12
within the next three months. With
the increase use of liquid petroluem and the continuing shortage of oil, I'm
putting a one-year price target of
US$27 on UGP’s stock.       Buy Ultrapar Participações
(UGP:NYSE) on dips under US$18.
For more information, contact
investor relations at Avenida
Brigadeiro Luis Antônio 1343, 8°
andar, Bela Vista 01317-910, São
Paulo, Brazil, tel. +55-11-3177-6695,
fax +55-11-3177-6107. Website:
www.ultra.com.br.       Siu-Yee Ng is Product Manager
and editor at the Red Zone Profits
investment group. ¦ “Soft patch” gets softer! How to protect your-
self as the S&P 500 sinks to 1,000 by October D Y N A M I C   M A R K E T   O U T L O O K By Adam Lass Next page... 8