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Future File Update:
Barpoint.com: Comparison Shopping on the Go
I was beginning to wonder if New Orleans was worth it. I mean, of course it was worth it. First, Nelson Mandela cancelled. And second, I didn't come out of the CTIA wireless convention with a bunch of great picks. I got one. But it looks like quality is getting the best of quantity. Barpoint.com (BPNT-OTC BB) is a keeper. Taipan subscribers are already up an impressive 66% in less than a month.
I've been trying to work up some valuation models for Barpoint, based on licensing to carriers or OEMs, advertising revenues, and commissions. But at this stage, Barpoint is still trying to establish itself. Discussing pricing in public would not be wise. And there aren't enough SEC filings to make an educated guess.
The only way to set a price target for Barpoint.com is by comparison. And when I look around and see some of the lame excuses some companies have for a business (FogDog and Egghead come to mind), I have to believe that Barpoint could easily carry a US$750 million market cap. So a reasonable price target should be in the US$48 range.
Especially important for Barpoint.com is the "agnostic" angle. Unlike Europe, the United States has no standard for mobile telephony. The U.S. is a patchwork of frequencies and platforms — GSM, TDMA, CDMA, PCS. Monogamy could be deadly.
Bright future for Fiber Optics
I was a little disappointed that APA Optics (APAT-NASDAQ) didn't throw us a bone from the recent optical convention. This stock looks like it will explode on a little good news. Testing of APAT's DWDM equipment should be about finished. That's the next likely catalyst for this stock.
I don't see the next earnings to offer much. I doubt there's been enough time to book any orders. So we will have to live with some volatility. But I think it will be well worth it. APA Optics has advanced technology, production capacity, and good connections from its days as an R&D house. And considering the consolidation in the sector, I continue to believe APA Optics is a prime buyout candidate.
Setting sell
For me buying a stock is the easy part. It's knowing when to sell that's hard. SaFlink and GeoWorks were both called perfectly. We sold SaFlink within a fraction of the top for the last two years. Taipan members raked in nearly 250% in just over two months.
Good judgement got the better of me with GeoWorks. I reversed my sell order after reviewing my technical and fundamental reasons for buying the stock in the first place. GeoWorks is up an eye-popping 550%. But I firmly believe there's more to come. Just wait until more licensing agreements come in from the WAP Forum.
I hope everyone noticed that not a single company came out and challenged the on its patent claims. GeoWorks played this scenario to perfection. The company had to have known that they were sitting on potentially useful patents. Waiting for WAP to become widely accepted was genius.
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