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February 10, 2001


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1999, one of the best IPO years,
2000, one of the worst years and 2001 —
a better year!

by Siu-Yee Ng

IPOs are a great way to make money… to cash in on potentially phenomenal short-term returns from new and exciting companies. But when the market climate turns, disappointments can be as great as the returns are high. The year 2000 began with a slew of speculative and highly rewarding Internet IPOs. It ended with greed-and-fear pendulum swinging back, mowing down investors, IPOs and gains indiscriminately.

Nevertheless, we were able to close two IPO positions with triple-digit profits. We sold Interwoven, Inc. (IWOV:NASDAQ) up 515% and Sangamo BioSciences, Inc. (SGMO:NASDAQ) up 233%. Taipan recommended you buy Sangamo in the aftermarket — which yielded a 334% return. If you haven’t taken profits yet, you’ll get another opportunity during the annual biotech rally.

Here’s what you can expect for Taipan’s IPOs.

B2B stocks will recover with the market…whenever the decisive rebound takes place. (I believe early this summer!) B2B companies are different from other tech companies. The spending is there, the need is there, and old-economy companies will spend heavily on B2B to save dollars.

FreeMarkets (FMKT:NASDAQ) is a pioneer in the B2B direct materials procurement market. It’s not about using the Net to save money on paper clips and pencils. Today, purchasers want to buy steel pipes, computer chips or disc brake assemblies. The focus has shifted to direct goods — the important stuff companies use to actually manufacture their products.

The tough part is to get companies, especially the old-economy companies, to use the exchange. FreeMarkets had a strong Q3-2000, beating analyst estimates. The company reported that it conducted 1,690 auctions in Q3, up from 1,400 the prior quarter. Revenues increased 37% sequentially, and sales increased 24% — a strong sign of market acceptance. Why wouldn’t customers return, considering FreeMarkets was able to help them save a total of US$483 million?

FreeMarkets’ dominance of the auction space is being challenged by self-service auctions, fixed vs. volume pricing and diminishing returns. But its strong revenue outlook, supported by product expansion, will be a catalyst for FreeMarkets’ appreciation.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM:NASDAQ) is the leading content delivery service provider, serving over 2,800 customers worldwide. Akamai has the broadest deployment of servers for content, streaming media, and applications delivery, with more than 8,000 servers in 54 countries directly connected to 335 different telecommunications networks.

Akamai’s network helps websites prevent traffic congestion by decreasing download times. Studies have shown that if a web page doesn’t download in five seconds, the customer will click through to another site. This means lost sales. Sure, some companies are adding bandwidth to increase speed, but this costs money. So does Akamai’s network. But the problem with bandwidth is in the politics. You see, for the Internet to work, providers of long-haul backbone lines, like Worldcom and Sprint, must collaborate to exchange data being carried on their private networks. I don’t see these old boys getting together anytime soon, since they’re competing over network performance. So there is a demand for Akamai’s network.

The high-flying fiber optic industry was one of the last sectors to be crushed by the NASDAQ late in 2000. But fiber optic companies did get a boost from the Federal rate cut on January 3. The rally didn’t hold up, though, and we’re once again seeing the market trend lower.

But we’re still up 50% in New Focus (NUFO:NASDAQ).

Since its May IPO, New Focus has been bouncing between US$20 and US$40 a share. Despite its volatility, there is a lot of upside potential. In the fall of 2000, it announced major new customers, two acquisitions that will add to operating earnings, and the addition of low-cost manufacturing capacity in China.

New Focus’s third-quarter results also surpassed Wall Street’s estimates — including a 76% sequential growth in sales to the telecom industry. New Focus is also selling high-tech tools for laboratory research.

Several next generation products are anticipated this year. New Focus expects profitability in the second half of this year — six months earlier than previously forecast. Despite negative sentiment, especially after telecom carriers announced a decrease in spending on network buildouts in 2001, the sector is still positioned for massive growth.

RHK Inc. predicts that sales of optical equipment for high-performance applications will grow at nearly 50% a year, to reach US$24 billion by 2004 — up from US$5 billion in 2000.

Luminent, Inc. (LMNE:NASDAQ) designs, manufactures and sells a line of single-mode fiber optic components that enable communications equipment manufacturers to build advanced fiber optic communications systems for the metropolitan and access markets. Despite a number of rival fiber optic plays, Luminent has an advantage over its competitors. It has the ability to make its own lasers, which is critical.

Think about it: Luminent won’t be limited or constrained by vendors. This also allows Luminent to offer its products and services at a lower cost and with faster turnaround time. Luminent is an aftermarket buy under US$6.

January and February are traditionally high times for biotechs — and a great time to unload. Look to sell our biotech IPO plays in the next couple of months. Be sure to log on to the Taipan website regularly for sell recommendations.

AeroGen, Inc. (AEGN:NASDAQ) has initiated Phase 2 clinical studies of its AeroDose insulin inhaler in diabetic patients. The AeroDose is a small, portable, handheld inhaler that uses AeroGen aerosol generator technology to aerosolize liquids. In collaboration with Becton, AeroGen is developing a container that allows patients to adjust their inhaled insulin dose. Diabetes is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States and affects an estimated 16 million people.

Illumina Inc. (ILMN:NASDAQ) develops next-generation tools that permit large-scale analysis of genetic variation and function. It recently announced an expansion in its oligonucleotide (oligo) manufacturing facility to a scale that can now support both the commercial sale of oligos and its single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping services.

Red Hat’s (RHAT:NASDAQ) version of Linux built to run small networked devices will be used in a new in-car docking station for Palm Pilots and mobile phones. The station works with certain Palm Pilot personal digital assistants and Ericsson phone models, and allows for voice-activated dialing, calendar checking, and the like.

The auto gadget market and telematics — two-way voice or data communication between a vehicle and a service center — represents a significant opportunity for Red Hat because the industry is pushing for a standard. But there’s a lot of competition.

Microsoft released three versions of its Windows CE operating system that are custom-built for automotive software, and Sun Microsystems is working with GM’s OnStar system to build a Java-based platform for in-car systems.

There is an advantage using Linux. Because Linux is open-source software, meaning its source code is publicly available and can be tweaked by any programmer without licensing fees, it provides a flexible standard. But there’s little upside for Red Hat in this market. Sell above US$10.


Siu-Yee Ng is the editor of IPO Trader, an IPO alert service that helps readers profit on IPOs and, more importantly, the IPO Aftermarket. Click here to find out how you can put Siu-Yee's expertise and extensive contacts to work for your portfolio.


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