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Regeneron
Pharmaceuticals (REGN:NASDAQ) up 31% since our recommendation
in last month's Taipan!
It
wasnt a realignment of the cosmos that pushed shares
of obesity drugmaker Regeneron up more than 31% since our
recommendation.
It appears that Taipan wasnt alone in thinking that
Regeneron would benefit from the increased media exposure
of Americas bulging waistline crisis.
As Taipan was being mailed to you, several Wall Street analysts
were quickly publishing reports about the tiny yet promising
biotech company in New York. Better late than never, I suppose.
In any event, Regeneron is trading at US$21 a share as I
write this.
And because of the rally
and the fact that it has
sustained support at around US$20.50
I feel comfortable
raising my buy limit to US$23 share.
Heres
why
If
you dont know the Regeneron story, let me give you
a quick summary from last months recommendation.
There are currently two anti-obesity drugs on the market,
Xenical and Meridia. Theyre the only FDA approved
anti-obesity drugs now on the marketand theyre
huge cash cows, even though they arent exactly thwarting
the fat epidemic in the U.S.
Xenical and Meridia reduce patients weight 13 pounds
and 10 pounds on average, respectively. But thats
after a full year of taking the medication. Yet these two
drugs generate a combined US$800 million in sales per year!
US$800 million sounds like a lot of cashand it is.
But its just a small fraction of the fat pie.
Thats about to change.
Regenerons drug, Axokine (currently in Phase III trials),
is not only safer than Xenical and Meridia, it could be
three to four times more effective at taking the pounds
off!
Im betting that if the drug gets approved, the companys
stock could rise at least 500%. And thats conservative.
Get
into their heads
Unlike
other anti-obesity drugs, Axokine works by tricking the
hypothalamus, a primitive region of the brain thats
important in many human urges, including hunger, thirst
and sex.
Axokines mechanism is similar to that of leptin, a
compound secreted by fat cells to signal the brain that
the body has an adequate supply of calories.
Leptin gained public notoriety when it was widely reported
that knockout mice that made no leptin protein (known as
ob/ob mice) were morbidly obese, but returned to normal
weight when given exogenous leptin.
Amgen is developing leptin in humans, but has experienced
limited success in clinical trials to date. Obese people
actually over-express leptin (theres a higher-than-normal
concentration of leptin in the blood and brains of obese
people), suggesting that obesity is a condition of relative
leptin resistance rather than leptin underproduction.
And thats how Axokine worksby tricking the brain
into thinking that the body isnt hungry.
Could
be 3 to 4 times better than anything on the market
In
a Phase II clinical trial, obese people lost an average
of 10 pounds during a 12-week treatment period with Axokine.
And heres the juice: The weight loss seen at 12 weeks
with Axokine was superior to what was seen at six months
with Xenical and Meridia.
If patients on Axokine can shed 10 pounds in every 12-week
period, its possible they could lose 30 to 40 pounds
in a year.
And thats the appeal of the drug
and Regenerons
stock.
Buy Regeneron (REGN:NASDAQ) below US$22.

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